NZ Election 2023: polls understated the right, but National-ACT may struggle for a final majority

NZ election results 2023 live updates, analysis: National, Act claim victory; Labour concedes after crushing defeat - Winston Peters celebrates comeback

By Derek Cheng

15 Oct, 2023 12:05 AM7 mins to read

 

 

NZ Election 2023: polls understated the right, but National-ACT may struggle for a final majority

Published: October 15, 2023 10.00am NZDT

 

While the tide well and truly went out on Labour on election night, there are still several factors complicating the formation of a National and ACT coalition government. Special votes are yet to be counted, with the official final result still three weeks away.

In past elections special votes have boosted the left parties. If that is the case this year, we won’t know by how much until November 3. Consequently, the preliminary results may be slightly skewed against the left.

On these figures, National won 50 seats (up 17 since the 2020 election), Labour 34 (down 31), the Greens 14 (up four), ACT 11 (up one), NZ First eight (returning to parliament), and Te Pāti Māori/the Māori party four (up two). There are 121 seats overall (up one from the last parliament).

While National and ACT currently have 61 combined seats, enough for a right majority, if past patterns hold they will lose one or two seats when the special votes are counted – and thus their majority.

 

2023 election results by seat

17

3

4

Electorate seats        List seats           Total seats

  Total:71                 Total:50             Total:121

 

 

National Party

38.95%

50 seats

 

Labour Party

26.9%

34 seats

 

Green Party

10.77%

14 seats

 

ACT New Zealand

8.98%

11 seats

 

New Zealand First Party

6.46%

8 seats

 

Te Pāti Māori

2.61%

4 seats

5

17

11

 

Several variables in play

There are two other complications. First, there will be a November 25 by-election in Port Waikato after the death last Monday of an ACT candidate. The winner of that by-election will be added as an additional seat. National is almost certain to win the by-election.

Second, Te Pāti Māori won four of the seven Māori-roll electorates and Labour one. In the other two, Labour is leading by under 500 votes. If Te Pāti Māori wins both these seats after special votes are counted, it would win six single-member seats, three above its proportional entitlement of three.

The new parliament already has one overhang seat due to Te Pāti Māori’s electorate success. If it wins six, the new parliament will have 124 members (including the Port Waikato by-election winner). That would mean 63 seats would be needed for a majority.

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Read more: It’s National on the night as New Zealand turns right: 2023 election results at a glance

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National, though, would be assisted if Te Pāti Māori’s party vote increases from the provisional 2.6% to around 3% after special votes are counted, but it wins no more single-member seats. That would increase Te Pāti Māori’s seat entitlement to four and eliminate the overhang.

Then, if the right drops only one seat after special votes and National wins the by-election, National and ACT would have a majority.

While National performed better than anticipated given the late trend to the left in the polls, National and ACT are unlikely to have a combined majority once all votes are counted, and National will likely depend on NZ First in some way.

Polls understated the right

Party vote shares on the night were 39.0% National (up 13.4%), 26.9% Labour (down 23.1%), 10.8% Greens (up 2.9%), 9.0% ACT (up 1.4%), 6.5% NZ First (up 3.9%) and 2.6% Te Pāti Māori (up 1.4%).

For the purposes of this analysis, the right coalition is defined as National and ACT, and the left as Labour, the Greens and Te Pāti Māori. NZ First has sided with both left and right in the past, and supported the left from 2017 to 2020, so it is not counted with either left or right.

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Read more: NZ Election 2023: from one-way polls to threats of coalition ‘chaos’, it’s been a campaign of two halves

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On the preliminary results, the right coalition won this election by 7.7 percentage points, enough for a majority despite NZ First’s 6.5%. In 2020, left parties defeated the right by a combined 25.9 points. But it’s likely the right’s lead will drop on special votes.

The two poll graphs below include a late poll release from Morgan conducted between September 4 and October 8. I have used September 22 as the midpoint. This poll gave the left parties a two-point lead over the right, a reversal of an 8.5-point right lead in Morgan’s August poll.

The current result is comparable to the polling until late September and early October when there was a late movement to the left.

Right coalition minus left coalition support in NZ polls since March 2023. This is calculated as National plus ACT (right) minus all of Labour, Greens and Māori (left).

New Zealand polls since late August.

Overall, it looks as if the polls overstated the Greens and understated National. The polls that came closest to the provisional result were the 1News-Verian poll and the Curia poll for the Taxpayers’ Union.

In 2020, polls greatly understated the left; this time the right was understated.

It’s possible media coverage of the possibility of NZ First being the kingmaker drove voters back to National in the final days. By 48% to 26%, respondents in the Guardian Essential poll thought NZ First holding the balance of power would be bad for New Zealand rather than good. For now, any such concerns are on hold.

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Explore 2023 New Zealand election results by overall party vote and at each local electorate level.

VOTING PLACES COUNT

100%

 

TOTAL VOTES COUNTED

2,266,163

including special votes

FINALISED ELECTORATES

72 of 72

ALL PARTIES

 

National Party

38.95%

50 seats

 

Labour Party

26.9%

34 seats

 

Green Party

10.77%

14 seats

 

ACT New Zealand

8.98%

11 seats

 

New Zealand First Party

6.46%

8 seats

 

Te Pāti Māori

2.61%

4 seats

 

 

The Opportunities Party (TOP)

2.07%

0 seats

 

New Zealand Loyal

1.15%

0 seats

 

NewZeal

0.56%

0 seats

 

Aotearoa Legalise Cannabis Party

0.39%

0 seats

 

Freedoms NZ (Umbrella party)

0.31%

0 seats

 

DemocracyNZ

0.24%

0 seats

 

Animal Justice Party

0.17%

0 seats

 

New Conservatives

0.15%

0 seats

 

Women’s Rights Party

0.08%

0 seats

 

Leighton Baker Party

0.08%

0 seats

 

New Nation Party

0.05%

0 seats

PARLIAMENT BREAKDOWN

National Party (50 seats)

 

Labour Party (34 seats)

 

Green Party (14 seats)

 

ACT New Zealand (11 seats)

 

New Zealand First Party (8 seats)

 

Te Pāti Māori (4 seats)

Majority needed to form goverment61 seats*

 

* Based on a 120 seat Parliament.

 

GENERAL

NORTHLAND

Northland

Whangārei

AUCKLAND

Auckland Central

Botany

East Coast Bays

Epsom

Kaipara ki Mahurangi

Kelston

Māngere

Manurewa

Maungakiekie

Mt Albert

Mt Roskill

New Lynn

North Shore

Northcote

Pakuranga

Panmure-Ōtāhuhu

Papakura

Takanini

Tāmaki

Te Atatū

Upper Harbour

Whangaparāoa

BAY OF PLENTY

Bay of Plenty

Rotorua

Tauranga

WAIKATO-TARANAKI

Coromandel

Hamilton East

Hamilton West

New Plymouth

Port Waikato

Taranaki-King Country

Taupō

Waikato

HAWKE'S BAY-EAST COAST

East Coast

Napier

Tukituki

MANAWATU-WHANGANUI-WAIRARAPA

Ōtaki

Palmerston North

Rangitīkei

Wairarapa

Whanganui

WELLINGTON

Hutt South

Mana

Ōhāriu

Remutaka

Rongotai

Wellington Central

UPPER SOUTH ISLAND-WEST COAST

Kaikōura

Nelson

West Coast-Tasman

CANTERBURY

Banks Peninsula

Christchurch Central

Christchurch East

Ilam

Rangitata

Selwyn

Waimakariri

Wigram

OTAGO-SOUTHLAND

Dunedin

Invercargill

Southland

Taieri

Waitaki

 

MĀORI

Hauraki-Waikato

Ikaroa-Rāwhiti

Tāmaki Makaurau

Te Tai Hauāuru

Te Tai Tokerau

Te Tai Tonga

Waiariki

 

 

2023 General Election - Preliminary Count

Nationwide Party Votes - 100.0% of results counted

Progressive updates of nationwide party votes as results from each voting place are returned.

 

 

Percentage of vote

38.95%

NAT

 

26.90%

LAB

 

10.77%

GP

 

8.98%

ACT

 

6.46%

NZF

 

2.61%

TPMAO

 

5.29%

OTHER

Projected total seats

50

 

34

 

14

 

11

 

8

 

4

 

0

PROJECTEDParty Votes% of VotesElectorate SeatsList SeatsTotal seats

National Party	878,288	38.95	45	5	50
Labour Party	606,663	26.90	17	17	34
Green Party	242,845	10.77	3	11	14
ACT New Zealand	202,664	8.98	2	9	11
New Zealand First Party	145,649	6.46	-	8	8
Te Pāti Māori	58,949	2.61	4	-	4
The Opportunities Party (TOP)	46,677	2.07	-	-	-
New Zealand Loyal	26,141	1.15	-	-	-
NewZeal	12,701	0.56	-	-	-
Aotearoa Legalise Cannabis Party	8,844	0.39	-	-	-
Freedoms NZ	7,031	0.31	-	-	-
Freedoms NZ	-	-	-	-	-
NZ Outdoors & Freedom Party	-	-	-	-	-
Rock the Vote NZ	-	-	-	-	-
Vision New Zealand	-	-	-	-	-
DemocracyNZ	5,544	0.24	-	-	-
Animal Justice Party	3,920	0.17	-	-	-
New Conservatives	3,587	0.15	-	-	-
Women’s Rights Party	1,836	0.08	-	-	-
Leighton Baker Party	1,814	0.08	-	-	-
New Nation Party	1,288	0.05	-	-	-
Total	2,254,441		71	50	121

View detailed results by Electorate

       Select Electorate                    Auckland Central                    Banks Peninsula                    Bay of Plenty                    Botany                    Christchurch Central                    Christchurch East                    Coromandel                    Dunedin                    East Coast                    East Coast Bays                    Epsom                    Hamilton East                    Hamilton West                    Hutt South                    Ilam                    Invercargill                    Kaikōura                    Kaipara ki Mahurangi                    Kelston                    Mana                    Māngere                    Manurewa                    Maungakiekie                    Mt Albert                    Mt Roskill                    Napier                    Nelson                    New Lynn                    New Plymouth                    North Shore                    Northcote                    Northland                    Ōhāriu                    Ōtaki                    Pakuranga                    Palmerston North                    Panmure-Ōtāhuhu                    Papakura                    Port Waikato                    Rangitata                    Rangitīkei                    Remutaka                    Rongotai                    Rotorua                    Selwyn                    Southland                    Taieri                    Takanini                    Tāmaki                    Taranaki-King Country                    Taupō                    Tauranga                    Te Atatū                    Tukituki                    Upper Harbour                    Waikato                    Waimakariri                    Wairarapa                    Waitaki                    Wellington Central                    West Coast-Tasman                    Whanganui                    Whangaparāoa                    Whangārei                    Wigram                    Hauraki-Waikato                    Ikaroa-Rāwhiti                    Tāmaki Makaurau                    Te Tai Hauāuru                    Te Tai Tokerau                    Te Tai Tonga                    Waiariki              

This is not the formal declaration of results.
The Electoral Commission declares the results of the official count by publishing a notice in the NZ Gazette.

The Electoral Commission aims to have the official results published on Friday 3 November. Detailed information to be presented to the House of Representatives (E9), including allocation of list seats, voting place information and special vote statistics, is expected to be available by Monday 27 November.